Insider Political Perspectives

Can Republicans Take Control of the Senate in 2014?

Currently, the US Senate is split 54-46 in favor of the Democrats, with 2 Independent members caucusing with the Democrats and one Democratic New Jersey seat being filled by a Republican appointee in place of the late Frank Lautenberg (D). This New Jersey seat will almost certainly flip back to the Democrats in the next election, which means that in 2014, Republicans will most likely have to gain six seats to reach a majority in the Senate. Achieving a net gain of only six seats may seem like an easy task, but it is by no means guaranteed.

So, can Republicans take control of the Senate in 2014? Below are some facts and figures to help answer that question. You be the judge!

According to political analyst Charlie Cook, one of the advantages Republicans have going into the 2014 elections is that they have fewer seats to defend than Democrats, by a margin of 14-20. This is compounded by the fact that 6 of the 20 seats Democrats must defend are in notoriously “red” states that Mitt Romney won by double-digits in the last presidential election (see chart 1).

On a related note, Democrats will also have more vacant seats to defend by a margin of 5-2 (see chart 2). Many analysts believe that vacant seats are the most difficult to defend.

Cook has also recently mentioned that if we look at each party’s expected losses in the 2014 election, Republicans are clearly favored. Currently, there are zero GOP seats in the Senate that look as though they will be taken by Democrats. Comparatively, Democrats have open seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia that look like they will go to Republicans in 2014.

Finally, Republicans should feel confident about their chances to win the Senate majority in 2014 if they review some telling historical election data. In five of the last six Senate elections where one party has held the presidency for six years, which will be the case in 2014, that party has lost seats in Congress. Voter groups that turned out in record numbers to help President Obama win in 2008 and 2012 will likely not turn out in such large numbers in the coming mid-term election when the Obama name is no longer on the ballot.

While these figures may seem to indicate that Republicans have several different avenues they can take to pursue control of the Senate in 2014, Charlie Cook has been outspoken in his belief that for this to occur, the GOP must do a much better job of running effective election campaigns than it has in recent elections. In 2010, Cook rated 7 Senate races as “toss-ups,” meaning there was an equal chance that seat could go to either party on Election Day. Democrats won 5 out of those 7 races. It was even worse for Republicans in 2012. Of the 10 Senate seats Cook rated as a “toss-up” in that cycle, Republicans won only 2. Additionally, as of Aug. 7, analysts at the National Journal assert that 3 of the top 10 incumbent lawmakers in all of Congress who could lose their primary election in 2014 are Republican Senators (see chart 3). If the GOP isn’t careful, those losses could lead to the rise of a poorly positioned nominee for the general election, allowing Democrats the opportunity to try and flip the seat. This brings us to our final point.

Maybe most important for Republicans seeking to take control of the Senate is to remember that much of their recent electoral plight has been due to what Cook refers to as self-inflicted errors. These errors have become especially evident during contested primary elections that produced Republican nominees who were poorly positioned to win in the general election. For a prime example of this, one needs look no further than former Congressman Todd Akin’s memorable run in the 2012 Missouri Senate election. Soon after winning a contested Republican primary in a Republican-dominated state, Akin made controversial comments that contributed greatly to a crushing defeat by his Democratic opponent Claire McCaskill in the general election. Self-inflicted errors like this have been costing Republicans congressional seats of late and could end up costing them a Senate majority in 2014 if they don’t tighten things up within their own ranks.

All things considered, Charlie Cook believes that Republicans have an above-average chance of winning the Senate majority in 2014. Do you agree?

Message from the Chair

Dear Colleagues:

Congress is currently working on replacing the flawed formula that determines reimbursement under Medicare and, indeed, some private payers. If action is not taken by January 1, 2014, Medicare providers could see a 25% reduction in their reimbursement. With increased operation costs, we cannot afford another reduction in reimbursement.

For less than the revenue generated from a third molar extraction, you can help OMSPAC elect those individuals who support our position on this and many other issues that directly impact your office. Do your part and make your OMSPAC contribution today!

Sincerely,

Lawrence R. Chewning, Jr., DMD

Articles of Note

Why Americans are Divided Between Two Political Parties
National Journal, June 27, 2013

President Obama’s approval numbers are now at the point where equal numbers of Americans approve and disapprove of him. In June Gallop polling, 46 percent approved and disapproved of Obama’s performance. Read more about how this division is affected by such things as the damaged Republican brand, Democratic voting trends, and the health reform law.

Gallup’s Open Book
National Journal, June 6, 2013

The Gallup organization has released an executive summary that explains how its polling ended up projecting a Mitt Romney win by 1 percentage point in an election the Republican nominee ended up losing by almost 4 points. Read this article to learn more about how and why Gallup developed a comprehensive report to take apart and reverse-engineer their election-polling procedures.

5 House Primaries to Watch
Politico, August 8, 2013

Much of the action in upcoming primaries is likely to come on the House side, where a handful of members from both parties have already attracted formidable opponents. Read this article to find out which 5 House primaries Politico thinks you should keep an eye on.

A Decade After McCain-Feingold, Election Spending Spikes
National Journal, July 11, 2013

A decade after Senators John McCain and Russ Feingold spearheaded sweeping legislation to reform the campaign-finance system, a series of setbacks have derailed any hopes its original sponsors had of curbing the influence of large contributions and the ever-increasing amount of money spent on election campaigns. Read more about how this reform legislation has become nothing more than a speed bump on the way to a dramatic political spending curve.

The Incredibly Shrunken 2014 Battlefield
Politico, July 22, 2013

The playing field for the 2014 elections is shaping up to be very small. Read this article to find out why control of Congress could be decided next year by the fewest number of states and congressional districts in a decade or more.

News from the PAC

OMSPAC hosts fundraiser for Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)

OMSPAC hosted a very successful fundraiser for US Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) on June 26, 2013 in Washington, DC. Senator Scott served in the US House of Representatives for two terms and was appointed by South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in December 2012 to serve the remainder of Republican Senator Jim DeMint’s term. DeMint stepped down in November 2012 to head the Heritage Foundation.

Senator Scott serves on several committees, most notably the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, which has jurisdiction over healthcare issues. Senator Scott will be up for a special election in 2014, to carry out the final two years of DeMint’s term, and again in 2016, for a full six-year Senate term.

OMSPAC was represented at the event by two of its South Carolina members. OMSPAC Board Chair Dr. Larry Chewning provided welcoming remarks to attendees and South Carolina OMSPAC Chair Dr. Jeff Wallen, who has been a long-time constituent of Senator Scott since his days in the US House, introduced the senator.

The event, which raised $25,000 for the Senator’s re-election campaign, was co-hosted by the American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry and the Bryan Cave Political Fund. Nearly a dozen other groups also attended from various industries, including the American Dental Association, the American Optometric Association, Chevron Oil Company and Tesoro Corporation.

Senator Scott expressed his appreciation for the event and provided his thoughts on issues ranging from health care, including his support for the medical device tax repeal, to space exploration.

Lawrence R. Chewning, Jr., DMD (left) and Jeffrey H. Wallen, DDS (right) with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) (center)

Participants discuss issues with Sen. Scott during the fundraiser

Include These Advocacy Events in your Annual Meeting Plans

Open Forum: Opioid Abuse and the OMS Patient – Future of Prescribing
Thurs., October 10, 2013
7:00am-9:00am
Location: Orange County Convention Center, Valencia Ballroom, W415B-C

Prescription drug policy has been a hot topic at both the state and federal levels in recent years, drawing increased scrutiny of practitioner prescribing habits. This forum, presented by the nation’s drug czar, White House Office of National Drug Control Policy Director R. Gil Kerlikowske, and AAOMS member Dr. R. Dean White of Granbury TX, will examine how changes to the nation’s drug policy will impact both OMSs and their patients.

Open Forum: Health Reform, the Government and Your Practice
Thurs., October 10, 2013
1:00pm-3:00pm
Orange County Convention Center, W232A-B

Hear from Chris Rorick, a member of AAOMS’s Washington, DC lobbying team, on how federal policy changes affecting the nation’s health care system will impact your patients and your practice. Specific topics to be discussed will include the implications of the federal health reform law and how various payment reform efforts may affect future OMS reimbursement.

OMSPAC Contributors’ Reception
Thurs., October 10, 2013
5:00pm-7:00pm
Location: Orchid Room, The Peabody Orlando

OMSPAC will once again host its contributors’ reception to thank all 2013 contributors for their support. Formal invitations will be mailed this month to all current OMSPAC contributors.

OMSPAC in Action

OMSPAC Boasts Strong Results in Telephone Solicitation Campaign

In late February, OMSPAC began a telephone solicitation campaign to any AAOMS-eligible member in District I, III, and IV who was not considered a current contributor. The effort was a huge success with $84,535 contributed by 280 individuals. In addition, 120 first time contributors chose to join the ranks of OMSPAC supporters. Calls to those in District II, V, and VI began earlier this month and we are looking forward to similar results in these districts.

OMSPAC Fundraising Totals on the Rise!

Between August 1, 2013 and July 31, 2013, OMSPAC raised $518,513 from 26.99% of the membership. Click here to view additional statistics or visit the OMSPAC Web site.

Current OMSPAC Contributors

The OMSPAC Board of Directors would like thank all of our current contributors, with a special thank you to our society, Capitol Club ($1,000+), and Diamond ($500-$999) contributors. For a full list of current contributors, please click here.